The Next War in the Middle East

I have a friend in Beirut who reports to me on what al-Jazeerah and the Lebanese and Israeli media are reporting. Also, I heard a recent interview with Robert Fisk which says essentially the same thing. Israel is planning a new war against Lebanon and perhaps also Syria and Hamas at the same time in the coming months. I have heard December 2010 and January 2011 mentioned.

I have not noticed any coverage of this pending conflagration mentioned in the major media. Here is how I see the dangers. Israel was unable to defeat Hezbolleh in 2006 and Hamas in 2009, though tremendous loss of life and damage to buildings and infrastructure occurred in both invasions. Hezbolleh is certainly stronger now militarily than it was in 2006; reports say that Hezbolleh can launch 1,000 rockets a day for 6 months. Hezbolleh's leader, who is noted for doing what he says he will do, has said that if Israel destroys a building in Lebanon, he will destroy a building in Israel. If Israel destroys a town, he will destroy a town. Note also that Syria has Scud missiles.

Therefore, in such a war, Israel will face far more substantial deaths and damage than in any previous war. Israel cannot win such a war. The irony is that the insane leaders of Israel know all this, but they are planning to go ahead anyway.

A war along these lines will cause tremendous human suffering and is to be avoided for that reason alone. However, there is a greater risk. What will the US government do when Israel suffers tremendously damaging attacks? Since the US public is not being prepared in advance for the likelihood of this war, there exists the possibility that the Obama administration, already stretched to the limit by the unsuccessful wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, would nevertheless commit troops and other military resources to intervene on Israel's behalf saying there is no time for lengthy discussion. How would Iran react to that?

This scenario promises to up the ante considerably both now and in the future. Anger at the US government would likely escalate considerably with many unforeseen consequences.

The time to discuss this impending danger is now before it happens. Oppose the Israeli war on its neighbors. Oppose any US intervention in such a war.